Amazon 2019: Growth as a service,  the cross category killer

Amazon 2019: Growth As A Service, The Cross Category Killer


Release date: August 20th, 2019 (105 pages)
PDF/Powerpoint format. Price: GBP985.00

Abstract

To the occasional visitor to the USA, it might seem as if Amazon has taken over America. The retailer is siphoning off spend on Whole Foods, as well as generating income from AmazonGo/ book stores/4star. An Alexa powered Echo can be found in the hotel/hire car, as can PrimeVideo, prime labelled vans are everywhere and so on. And all of this a visitor would notice without having had any interaction with the main legacy website. To put it in other words: between Amazon retail (1P and 3P), devices and Prime Video, hardly a day goes by when fewer than 100 million people touch Amazon.

•  Its recent standout innovation AmazonGo is truly revolutionary, while other retailers have introduced their own checkout-free scan-and-go services, Amazon Go’s “Just Walk Out Shopping” technology has taken that convenience experience up several notches.

•  For the Go stores, Amazon can claim that it has solved stealing, maybe someone
could hack the bar code on entry – but for the moment shoplifting has been abolished. The concept uses Amazon’s amazing computer abilities (using AmazonPay and AWS of course, also the computer vision also used in its facial recognition software) to scale, just as the retailer created synergies between prime, marketplace and FBA.

•  In future, Amazon could grow the concept and license the cashierless technology to other convenience retailers. (We are really curious what Amazon’s preconditions would be for this – such as prime membership for a rival retailer’s shoppers to use the service?)

•  Moving from Amazon’s front end stores to logistics, one can claim that Amazon is now a better logistics operator than Walmart, as it has grown its footprint of fulfillment centres, sort centers and so on – and indeed the entire Amazon Logistics business. The comparison between the two is especially enlightening when looking at delivery speed. Walmart’s two
million items (for two day shipping) is no match for Amazon’s one hundred million (prime eligible). And now Amazon is moving towards one – day prime deliveries as standard, as always keeping several steps ahead of the competition.

•  Amazon has also been highly innovative with its new warehouse and sort center robots Xanthus and Pegasus (In September 2017 Amazon had > 100k robots in their warehouses, now there are 200k) – and in future the use of drones, self driving cars and delivery robots on the other end of last mile fulfillment.

•  In terms of the marketplace there have been major changes also. In future it looks like Amazon will de-emphasize its 1 Party business and let 3P take over (apart from selected categories that are important for overall branding and shopper experience), as the marketplace generates much better margins, service sales outpace product sales, and 3P relationships can often be self service.

Table of contents

Executive summary: Amazon 2019 p7
Data p13
Data and KPIs: Net Sales & Income, Margin 2008-18, adding $55.0bn in 2018 p14
Data and KPIs: Net Sales & Income, Margin 2008-15, Analysis p15
Data and KPIs: US, international, AWS sales, in $m, % split, growth, 2013-2018 p16
Data and KPIs: US, international, AWS sales, Analysis p17
Revenues, Financials, KPIs, Benchmarks in Amazon geographies p18
Data and KPIs: International sales by country, in $m, % split, growth, 2008-2018 p19
Active customer accounts per Amazon geography and annual basket spend p22
Data and KPIs: Active customer accounts in m, by country 2009-18, growth p23
Data and KPIs: Active customer accounts, Analysis p24
Data and KPIs: Average annual spend per country 2011-18 in local currency p25
Data and KPIs: Average annual spend 2011 – 18e on AMZN 1P, Analysis p26
Shopper research: loyalty, search, prime, brands presence, voice p27
Shopper research: unique visitors, frequency, Amazon winning in clothing p28
Shoppers: how Amazon reaches untapped potential – discounted prime p29
Shoppers: how Amazon reaches untapped potential – Amazon PayCode p30
Shoppers: how Amazon reaches untapped potential – Amazon Cash p31
Shoppers: how Amazon reaches untapped potential – language options p32
Marketplace p33
Data: net sales by geography, average price, total units, customers, frequency 2018 p34
Data: average price, total units, customers, frequency per country, Analysis p35
Data: 3P share of GMV in % 1999-2018 p36
Data: 1P sales in US$m, 3P sales, % splits, GMV 2014-2018 p37
Marketplace: 14 global stores, appstore, 3P as largest online retailer in the US p38
Marketplace: more than 3.5k sellers join every day, seller structure p39
Marketplace: The World’s Top Amazon Marketplace Sellers 2018, Momox p40
Marketplace: Chinese sellers are taking over p41
Marketplace: Amazon wants more exclusive brands from manufacturers p42
Marketplace: will Amazon shift its suppliers from 1P to 3P? And if so, when? p43
Marketplace: first trial balloon of tactic in March, blamed on tech glitch p44
Marketplace: the strength of the Amazon marketplace, vendor/seller decision p45
Prime p46
Data and KPIs: The Prime Universe p47
Data and KPIs: Prime account holders in m per country 2009-18 p48
Prime: the all-you-can-eat, physical-digital hybrid p49
Prime: Prime: more successful at getting customers to cross shop than any other initiative p50
Prime: Most successful tool to get buy-in to new categories, net costs, uplifts p51
Prime: the 7 key prime benefits to Amazon p52
Prime: Prime fee income 2015 in US$m, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, other p53
Prime: Prime fee income 2016/17 in US$m, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, other p54
Prime: Prime fee income 2018 in US$m, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, other p55
Prime: Reconciliation Prime fee income 2015-18 with reported AMZN stats p56
Prime: the move to one day shipping, costs of USD800 million in Q2 p57
Prime: huge strain on Amazon logistics partners to move to one-day delivery p58
AmazonGo p59
Amazon Go: Store Visit - pictures p60
Amazon Go: Amazon’s Most Ambitious Research Project p62
Amazon Go: a footfall problem in Chicago? p63
Amazon Go: from computer vision to sensor fusion p64
Amazon Go: all physical Amazon stores at early stage still p65
Amazon Go: immense costs for a magical shopper experience p66
Amazon Go: will it become a $4bn business? p67
Amazon Go: the economics of a Go store, basket size, frequency, sales density p68
Amazon Go: the cost of the hardware, range limitations, packaging p69
Amazon stores p70
Amazon stores: Amazon Books store visit – pictures p71
Amazon stores: PrimeNow picking station at WFM – pictures p72
Amazon stores: brick-and-mortar strategy, all Whole Foods growth from delivery p73
Amazon stores: changes at Whole Foods, prime discounts a success p74
Amazon stores: WFM initially seen as offer to most affluent prime shoppers p75
Amazon stores: designing a new grocery format distinct from WFM p76
Amazon stores: “Grocery Shopping for Everyone” p77
Amazon stores: “Presented by Amazon” as replacement for abandoned pop ups? p78
Alexa p79
Alexa: a rival to Apple’s AirPods, Amazon’s first Alexa Wearable p80
Alexa: a strategic nightmare working through Apple and Google’s OS p81
Alexa: the potential of voice payments p82
Alexa: security concerns remain a substantial barrier p83
Pill Pack p84
Pill Pack: acquisition to crack the $500 billion prescription market p85
Pill Pack: Amazon attacking another established equilibrium p86
Pill Pack: a great prime benefit? p87
Pill Pack: competing with the PBMs’ established mail order services p88
Pill Pack: part of wider Amazon plan in health care, Haven and Alexa p89
Pill Pack: learning to function like an Amazon business p90
Amazon Business p91
Amazon Business: overview p92
Amazon Business: data, market shares, customer profiles p93
Amazon Business: the next USD10bn breakout success p94
Amazon Business: as a strategic partner in B2B p95
Amazon Business: growth trajectory and forecast p96
Outlook p97
Outlook: Amazon 2020 forecast, 3P, 1P, GMV p98
Outlook: Amazon 2020 building out the competitive moat p99
Sources p101
A bit more on ResearchFarm p103
Charts Chart 1: Data: 3P share of GMV in % 1999-2018 p36
Chart 2: The Prime Universe p47
Chart 3: Amazon Business: overview p92
Chart 4: Amazon Business: data, market shares, customer profiles p93
Chart 5: Amazon Business: as a strategic partner in B2B p95
Chart 6: Amazon Business: growth trajectory and forecast p96
Tables Table 1: Data and KPIs: Net Sales & Income, Margin 2008-18, adding $55.0bn in 2018 p14
Table 2: Data and KPIs: US, international, AWS sales, in $m, % split, growth, 2013-2018 p16
Table 3: Data and KPIs: International sales by country, in $m, % split, growth, 2008-2018 (I) p19
Table 4: Data and KPIs: International sales by country, in $m, % split, growth, 2008-2018 (II) p20
Table 5: Data and KPIs: International sales by country, in $m, % split, growth, 2008-2018 (III) p21
Table 6: Data and KPIs: Active customer accounts in m, by country 2009-18, growth p23
Table 7: Data and KPIs: Average annual spend per country 2011-18 in local currency p25
Table 8: Data: net sales by geography, average price, total units, customers, frequency 2018 p34
Table 9: Data: 1P sales in US$m, 3P sales, % splits, GMV 2014-2018 p37
Table 10: Marketplace: The World’s Top Amazon Marketplace Sellers 2018, Momox p40
Table 11: Data and KPIs: Prime account holders in m per country 2009-18 p48
Table 12: Prime fee income 2015 in US$m, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, other p53
Table 13: Prime fee income 2016 in US$m, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, other p54
Table 14: Prime fee income 2017 in US$m, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, other p54
Table 15: Prime fee income 2018 in US$m, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, other p55
Table 16: Reconciliation Prime fee income 2015-18 with reported AMZN stats p56