Lidl & Kaufland: hard discounters 2012

Lidl & Kaufland: Hard Discounters 2012


Release date: October 30th, 2012 (122 pages)
PDF/Powerpoint format. Price: GBP950.00

Abstract

Schwarz Gruppe is not just the driving force behind Lidl’s remarkable success story over recent years, but is also behind Kaufland – currently the most successful hypermarket business in the EU. The Kaufland operation is separately run from Lidl but managed according to identical, strict discount principles and the compact hypermarket format’s performance in Germany and CEE is outstanding. The reason behind Schwarz’s success is a relentless focus on price and slow and steady adaptation to changed shopper needs paired with first class execution.

Whereas Kaufland demonstrates that strong growth is possible for a hypermarket format, even when most competitors are struggling against the tough macro economic backdrop, Lidl has transformed itself into the leading European retailer with the highest store count in the largest number of countries of the EU. ResearchFarm predicts that with the combined turnover of Lidl and Kaufland, Schwarz will also become the leading EU retailer by sales generated in the EU in 2013, overtaking Tesco, Metro Group and Carrefour. It will be a closely fought race though.

In France, Lidl’s most important foreign market, the discount format will see a major update of the formula. Over coming months management will import Lidl’s latest cutting edge thinking from other markets, upgrade the in store presentation, extend the branded ranges and deepen the crucial focus on fresh produce. Lidl’s convenience outlet is an adaptation of the traditional hard discount format, featuring a number of innovations - and is characterised by the absence of non food. That said, we believe that non food represents a major opportunity for Lidl, as Germany’s transactional online operations showcasing a huge branded non food presence can be rolled out internationally.

While much change is afoot at Lidl, the core strength will remain the private label proposition and as such there will be a clear limit for brands in store. As the first mover Lidl serves as a clear template for Aldi. Past experience at Lidl, ranging from Super Saturdays, outstanding footfall generation to the innovative promotional stance - and the gentle move away from EDLP suggests what the future could look like at Aldi and crucially what probably will not work.

Lidl is also further ahead than Aldi in terms of private label segmentation and unlike its rival in vertical integration, as these have become key strategic objectives for the retailer. For Schwarz vertical integration also means optimising the supply chain and utilising spare capacity efficiently. Schwarz’ supply chain optimisation, bundling  smaller suppliers’ deliveries has really driven down costs and the initiative is now also copied by Aldi.

Schwarz now needs to prepare for the attention its new status as the EU’s biggest retailer will bring. We believe that focusing on making its business future proof - by securing supply through vertical integration and by attracting top talent and shop floor staff through offering better compensation than much of the competition will be the first steps on its exciting journey over the coming years.

Table of contents

Executive summary p15
Context – the Macro-economic outlook for the EU p18
GDP sizes: EU 27, 2011 in €bn, the structure from Germany to Malta p19
GDP sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn p20
GDP sizes: EU 27, 11 countries still lagging behind their 2008 levels p21
GDP sizes: EU 27, Currency devaluations, Poland keeps momentum going, ECB action p22
Unemployment: EU 27, annual average 2011 (%) from Spain to Austria p23
Unemployment: EU 27, Misery in the periphery while… p24
Unemployment: EU 27, …Germany roars on due to the right policy mix p25
Inflation: Euro Area and EU27, 2006-2011 (HICP), % p26
Inflation: EU 27, deflation avoided, lost decade in store? p27
Inflation: Euro Area 17, 2006-2011 (HICP), %, welcoming Estonia p28
Interest rates: ECB and BoE, record low rates and quantitative easing p29
Interest rates: breathing space for southern Europe, LTRO p30
Context – EU Retailing in 2012 p31
Retail sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn p32
Retail sizes: EU 27, crisis has left a deep, deep scar p33
Retail sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 growth in %, CAGR p34
Retail sizes: EU 27, a sector in turmoil, e-commerce, housing markets, ageing populations p35
Per capita retail spend: EU 27, 2011 in €, from Luxembourg to Romania p36
EU Grocery Retailing in 2012 p37
Grocery sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn p38
Grocery sizes: shoppers cut back, shop around, trade down and go to hard discounters p39
Grocery sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 growth in %, CAGR p40
Grocery growth rates: EU 27 2007-11 in %, growth in Poland, decline in Ireland p41
Grocery growth rates: Ireland as a template for the rest of the periphery? p42
Grocery sizes: The leading countries, Top 3 take one of every €2 spent p43
Grocery share of total retail: EU 27, 2007-2011 in % p44
Grocery share of total retail: Clear crisis impact - all but four show higher share again p45
Grocery per capita sizes: EU 27 in 2011 in €, from the UK to Bulgaria p47
Hard discounters, Schwarz to become the EU’s biggest retailer p48
Lidl: the copy cat overtaking Aldi, the original p49
Lidl: the brands equilibrium, Kaufland the growth driver in CEE p51
Lidl: OSA and Warendruck, operational independence for Lidl and Kaufland p52
Lidl: category management, Kaufland the most successful hypermarket operator in the EU p53
Lidl: always the second mover, threat to Tesco, more potential for Kaufland p54
Lidl: all about expansion, solely focused on Europe p55
Recent developments p56
Lidl: minimum wage debates and combating a poor legacy image p57
Lidl: Commitment to Greece, healthy eating in the Netherlands… p58
Lidl: …and the UK, Fair Trade in Belgium, ongoing Swiss expansion p59
Financials – growing through the crisis p60
Schwarz: sales 2006-11, growth, domestic share of total, l-f-l growth through the crisis p61
Schwarz: 6% growth in 2011, aiming for €66.0bn in 2012 p62
Schwarz: on track to become Germany’s biggest retailer – and the EU’s p63
Schwarz: benchmarks, sales, stores, sales per store, space, sales densities in 2011 p64
Lidl - the most internationalised retailer in the EU p65
Lidl: Countries, benchmarks, sales, stores, space, sales densities in 2011 1/2 p66
Lidl: Countries, benchmarks, sales, stores, space, sales densities in 2011 2/2 p67
Lidl: 10,000 stores barrier broken in 2011, 10 million square meter under the Lidl banner p68
Lidl: Germany, sales per store to top €5.0m, cutting the branded SKU range down again p69
Lidl: Germany, the roll out of in store bakeries, Super Sundays, powerful footfall drivers p70
Lidl: 2011, sales per country in €m, market shares of total grocery universe in % 1/2 p71
Lidl: 2011, sales per country in €m, market shares of total grocery universe in % 2/2 p72
Lidl: France, most important foreign market, a success story p73
Lidl: France, rapid growth as the LME opens the market p74
Lidl: UK, benefitting from the downturn, fast expansion pace, space race p75
Lidl: UK, investing in wine to drive up loyalty among the ABs, heavy investment into fresh p76
Lidl: Other markets, catching up in the Netherlands, CEE, Romania and Slovakia p77
Lidl: disappointment in the Baltics and Scandinavia p78
Lidl: Switzerland – market entry lowering price points of the entire retail universe p79
Kaufland – the most successful hypermarket operator in the EU p80
Kaufland: Countries, benchmarks, sales, stores, space, sales densities p81
Kaufland: K-classic, a hugely successful private label line, vertical integration p82
Kaufland: The expansion into CEE, Kaufland first mover and more profitable than Lidl p83
Kaufland: 2011, sales per country in €m, market shares of total grocery universe in % p84
Kaufland: Czech Republic and Romania, shrinking the store size p85
Kaufland: the logistics secret, the potential of the return trip, eradicating empty runs p86
Kaufland: higher capacity utilisation and lowering overall costs, supplier collaboration p87
Kaufland: revamping non food in store, range depth unchanged p88
Kaufland: reason behind the success, slow and steady adaptation, first class execution p89
Location, format and expansion strategy p90
Lidl: revamping the store format towards a convenience fascia, focus on fresh and food p91
Lidl: low branded SKU count, the cash desk innovation p92
Lidl: drawbacks of the new model, analysis, cost drivers, space considerations p93
Kaufland: experimenting with self check outs and updating the format p94
Lidl: The expansion strategy, from quantity to quality, in store bakeries p95
Lidl: the introduction of FMCG A brands in 2007, overtaking Aldi, opportunities p96
Lidl: Growth opportunities p97
Lidl: working the property portfolio, sale and leaseback deals, missteps p98
Lidl/Kaufland: supplier relationships, no traditional category management p99
Lidl/Kaufland: benefits of the sourcing model, supply chain collaboration p100
Kaufland: launching a Private Label product at Kaufland, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity p101
Lidl: social media, digital marketing and exploiting the smartphone opportunity p102
Lidl: using QR codes, little to fear from Amazon or price comparison p103
Strategy p104
Hard discounters: 4 success factors p105
Lidl: Online operations, huge branded non food presence online, international opportunity p106
Lidl: Non food brands available online in Germany (letters B & C) p107
Lidl: tackling the non food issue, easier at Lidl than at Kaufland p108
Lidl: going soft and widening the SKU count – up to a degree p109
Lidl: core strength of private label proposition, a clear limit for brands in store p110
Lidl: private label segmentation and vertical integration as key strategic objectives p111
Lidl: vertical integration achieved in soft drinks, WIP in confectionery, the PET system p112
Outlook and forecast p113
Schwarz: strength, one format at a time, cost control, lean processes, reduced complexity p114
Lidl: challenge, negative publicity, recruiting talent, proactive campaigns p115
Schwarz: online threat, tackling the non food issue, easier at Lidl than at Kaufland p116
Lidl: Lild’s transactional website as a template for the future, drive solution potential p117
Lidl: the expansion opportunity, US on backburner, strengthening the core p118
Lidl: tailwinds from the economy, to do list, on track to become the EU’s biggest retailer p119
Lidl: SWOT Analysis p120
Sources p121
Table 1: GDP sizes: EU 27, 2011 in €bn p19
Table 2: GDP sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn p20
Table 3: Inflation: Euro Area and EU27, 2006-2011 (HICP), % p26
Table 4: Inflation: Euro Area 17, 2006-2011 (HICP), % p28
Table 5: Retail sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn p32
Table 6: Retail sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 growth in %, CAGR p34
Table 7: Per capita retail spend: EU 27, 2011 in € p36
Table 8: Grocery sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn p38
Table 9: Grocery sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 growth in %, CAGR p40
Table 10: Grocery share of total retail: EU 27, 2007-2011 in % p44
Table 11: Schwarz: sales 2006-11, growth, domestic share of total, l-f-l growth through the crisis p61
Table 12: Schwarz: benchmarks, sales, stores, space, average space, sales densities in 2011 p64
Table 13: Lidl: Countries, benchmarks, sales, stores, space, sales densities 1/2 in 2011 p66
Table 14: Lidl: Countries, benchmarks, sales, stores, space, sales densities 2/2 in 2011 p67
Table 15: Lidl: 2011, sales per country in €m, market shares of total grocery universe in % 1/2 p71
Table 16: Lidl: 2011, sales per country in €m, market shares of total grocery universe in % 2/2 p72
Table 17: Kaufland: Countries, benchmarks, sales, stores, space, sales densities in 2011 p81
Table 18: Kaufland: 2011, sales per country in €m, market shares of total grocery universe in % p84
Chart 1: Unemployment: EU 27, annual average 2011 (%) (1) p23
Chart 2: Unemployment: EU 27, annual average 2011 (%) (2) p23
Chart 3: Interest rates: BOE p29
Chart 4: Interest rates: ECB p29
Chart 5: Grocery growth rates: EU 27 2007-11 in %, (1) p41
Chart 6: Grocery growth rates: EU 27 2007-11 in %, (2) p41
Chart 7: Grocery sizes: The leading countries p43
Chart 8: Grocery per capita sizes: EU 27 in 2011 in € (1) p47
Chart 9: Grocery per capita sizes: EU 27 in 2011 in € (2) p47
Chart 10: Lidl grocery market share by country in 2011 (1/2) p71
Chart 11: Lidl grocery market share by country in 2011 (2/2) p72
Chart 12: Kaufland: 2011, sales per country in €m, market shares of total grocery universe in % p84
Chart 13: Lidl 4 growth opportunities p97
Chart 14: Hard discounters 4 success factors p105
Chart 15: Lidl SWOT Analysis p120