Online Grocery Retailing 2012
Release date: May 21st, 2012 (140 pages)
PDF/Powerpoint format. Price: GBP950.00
This report focuses on four key issues. It provides an analysis into the context the sector operates in by focusing on the wider trends impacting online grocery and crucially it provides all the data needs, by showing how developed online grocery is in the EU now and what the state of play in online grocery retailing will be in the future.
Secondly the report focuses on real world examples where online grocery players have made the business model work against all the odds, by focusing on three key case examples. The report explains Tesco, the global online grocery leader and the reasons behind its success, before assessing LeShop, a player that is similar to the UK’s Ocado, in being more of a service provider than a retailer. This case example shows how big the average basket can become in € terms in online grocery and how long it takes for such a business model to become profitable. Thirdly the report takes an in depth look at the drive phenomenon in France, that has led to a growth explosion in the sector.
In the third section the report looks at strategic issues and actionable recommendations and highlights some innovations and growth opportunities in online grocery. We have identified curated shopping, subscription models, generating fulfillment efficiencies, customisation, the online marketplace opportunity and shopping lists as decisive going forward and provide in-depth analysis on real life business case examples.
In the fourth and final chapter the focus shifts to providing an outlook for the sector going forward. The report explains the key learnings around costs and states that leveraging existing asset bases and infrastructure is absolutely vital. Then the real first mover benefits are discussed and we give our view on how the sector will develop when connected kitchens and the rise of the shopping lists is becoming ever more acute.
Finally a section of actionable recommendations rounds off the report, where we give detailed recommendations what retailers and FMCG manufacturers thinking about the online sector should do next.
Which is the biggest European online grocery market - after the UK?
Where is the greatest growth potential in the EU right now? How fast are the markets growing? Is the UK a model that the others will follow? Or is the US model, focusing on shelf staple products first, a more reliable predictor?
Structure of the market
Why is click and collect so successful in France and Belgium, but not in the Netherlands? What is the state of play in Germany, what is the outlook for CEE and what will happen in Southern Europe and in the periphery? Why is Scandinavia a hotbed of development for online grocery right now?
Why is consumables the fastest growing category of Amazon’s 43 business units in the US? How many Amazon customers buy online grocery products from the pureplayer at the moment? How is the company transforming its front and back end business to drive even faster growth in the US? Which of these innovative techniques are hitting Europe as we speak?
How long will it take Ocado before the company becomes profitable for a whole year, what player has achieved this with a similar business model before?
How big can online grocery baskets become in money terms, and which retailer achieves this (it’s not a UK based player)?
What are Auchan and Tesco up to in terms of internationalising their online grocery operations?
Who are the most promising, innovative and exciting new start ups? Which ones have established themselves by now?
What are the new initiatives in online grocery beyond apps and mobile commerce right now?
What is the next step in the continuing evolution to drive costs down – after click & collect and drive throughs? Where is there untapped potential for lean supply chain management? What have most companies missed out on so far?
How are online grocers driving growth through curation and customisation right now? Why does grocery lend itself perfectly to these concepts?
Marketplaces and subscriptions
Why are online marketplaces so successful? Which small players are rivalling the multinationals by leveraging local? Why are marketplaces so important for the FMCG industry? Why will FMCG branded storefronts become a huge growth opportunity going forward?
What is the true potential in subscriptions services? What will happen if subscriptions will combine with curation and customisation aspects driven by the shopper? Which retailers are the ones to watch in this space?
The shopping list
What will the rise of shopping lists mean for the future of online grocery retailing? How can retailers and FMCG players alike exploit this new opportunity? How can they work together? Which role will smartphones play in list management?
Will the connected fridge or bin be central to the list in future? Will the lists of the future be about price or about nutrition? Will it be about convenience, recipes or about new products?
Why is online grocery shopping an ideal test bed for new product innovations and development? What is the future of private label in the online space? How can retailers and FMCG companies get their products on the online shopper’s lists?
Table of contents
|Context – the Macro-economic outlook for the EU||p17|
|GDP sizes: EU 27, 2011 in €bn, the structure from Germany to Malta||p18|
|GDP sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn||p19|
|GDP sizes: EU 27, 11 countries still lagging behind their 2008 levels||p20|
|GDP sizes: EU 27, Currency devaluations, Poland keeps momentum going, ECB action||p21|
|Unemployment: EU 27, annual average 2011 (%) from Spain to Austria||p22|
|Unemployment: EU 27, Misery in the periphery while…||p23|
|Unemployment: EU 27, …Germany roars on due to the right policy mix||p24|
|Inflation: Euro Area and EU27, 2006-2011 (HICP), %||p25|
|Inflation: EU 27, deflation avoided, lost decade in store?||p26|
|Inflation: Euro Area 17, 2006-2011 (HICP), %, welcoming Estonia||p27|
|Interest rates: ECB and BoE, record low rates and quantitative easing||p28|
|Interest rates: breathing space for southern Europe, LTRO||p29|
|Context – EU Retailing in 2012||p30|
|Retail sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn||p31|
|Retail sizes: EU 27, crisis has left a deep, deep scar||p32|
|Retail sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 growth in %, CAGR||p33|
|Retail sizes: EU 27, a sector in turmoil, e-commerce, housing markets, ageing populations||p34|
|Per capita retail spend: EU 27, 2011 in €, from Luxembourg to Romania||p35|
|EU Grocery Retailing in 2012||p36|
|Grocery sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn||p37|
|Grocery sizes: shoppers cut back, shop around, trade down and go to hard discounters||p38|
|Grocery sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 growth in %, CAGR||p39|
|Grocery growth rates: EU 27 2007-11 in %, growth in Poland, decline in Ireland||p40|
|Grocery growth rates: Ireland as a template for the rest of the periphery?||p41|
|Grocery sizes: The leading countries, Top 3 take one of every €2 spent||p42|
|Grocery share of total retail: EU 27, 2007-2011 in %||p43|
|Grocery share of total retail: Clear crisis impact - all but four show higher share again||p44|
|Grocery per capita sizes: EU 27 in 2011 in €, from the UK to Bulgaria||p46|
|EU Grocery Retailing in 2012 – Online sizes||p47|
|Online grocery sizes sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €m e||p48|
|Online percentage share of total grocery: EU 27, UK, France, Benelux and Spain||p49|
|Online grocery: Scandinavia a hotbed of development, tough German market||p50|
|Online grocery: CEE the opportunity, driven by Auchan, Tesco et al||p51|
|Online grocery: EU Growth rates and forecast to 2015||p52|
|Forecast 2010-2015: data EU Total & Online grocery in €bn||p53|
|Drivers of Change||p54|
|Drivers of change: The ESTLE background||p55|
|Drivers of change: retailer push and consumer pull||p56|
|Drivers of change: Technological innovation and click & collect||p57|
|Drivers of change: starting the beneficial cycle||p58|
|A model for future development? LeShop – the service provider||p59|
|LeShop: a model for other markets?||p60|
|LeShop: First y – o – y decline, as Swiss shop abroad and Coop ramps up online||p61|
|LeShop: link up with Swiss Post, home deliveries only pm or evenings||p62|
|LeShop: Chilled storage box solution – no need for cool chain||p63|
|LeShop: the data, 31k new customers per year||p64|
|LeShop: M-commerce and the Migros advantage||p65|
|A model for future development? Tesco – the multichannel retailer||p66|
|Tesco: The European and global online grocery leader||p67|
|Tesco: The crucial club card advantage||p68|
|Loyalty: Why has Tesco invested in online?||p69|
|Tesco: Market maker, moving towards dark stores||p70|
|Tesco: Incremental online sales, higher online than offline share||p71|
|UK – data, Tesco customers, average spend and growth||p72|
|Tesco: a closer look at the data, the marketplace opportunity||p73|
|Loyalty: Tesco Clubcard migrating online||p74|
|Tesco: the opportunity in store, free Wi-Fi, click & collect and drive||p75|
|A model for future development? Drives in France||p76|
|Auchan: figures, hyper vs Chronodrive||p77|
|France: The development of the drive solution||p78|
|The Chronodrive model: growing strongly||p79|
|France: arterial roads, pure solution versus add on, cost management||p80|
|Click & collect: Data, Q4 2011 France||p81|
|France: no trading permits needed, boom in the format||p82|
|France click & collect: 892 stations, 30 new per month||p83|
|New concepts: 6 ideas for online grocery||p84|
|New concepts: strategies and recommendations, curated shopping and subscriptions||p85|
|New concepts: strategies and recommendations, running empty and customisation||p86|
|New concepts: strategies and recommendations, marketplaces and internationalisation||p87|
|New concepts: strategies and recommendations, the shopping list||p88|
|New concepts: curated shopping||p89|
|Linas Matkasse: the recipe pioneer from Sweden||p90|
|Linas Matkasse: curated e-commerce in grocery||p91|
|Linas Matkasse: an update of box schemes||p92|
|New concepts: subscription models||p93|
|Subscribe & save: Amazon’s transformation of US online grocery||p94|
|Amazon: The supplier relationship potential||p95|
|Amazon: Dynamic brand stores||p96|
|New concepts: Beyond drive and click & collect, the potential on the return trip||p97|
|New concepts: multichannel retailers making the store estate count||p99|
|New concepts: making online grocery deliveries efficient||p100|
|New concepts: Reducing the empty runs||p101|
|New concepts: Partnerships will become a necessity as online shopping continues to expand||p102|
|New concepts: customisation and personalisation||p103|
|MyMuesli: The customisation opportunity||p104|
|Customisation: Let the shopper control the personalisation of products||p105|
|New concepts: marketplaces, collaboration potential||p107|
|Marketplaces: FMCG - necessary online presence||p108|
|Marketplaces: especially pertinent in online grocery||p109|
|FMCG response: Alice the industry portal||p110|
|Alice.com: the premier FMCG marketplace operator, the US operation||p111|
|Alice.com: European expansion||p113|
|Strengths of marketplaces: The model||p114|
|Strengths of marketplaces: free market research, price competitiveness||p115|
|Strengths of marketplaces: beneficial cash flow||p116|
|Strengths of marketplaces: unlimited range and network effects||p117|
|Marketplaces: the future||p118|
|Marketplaces: from Japan’s Rakuten to Denmark’s Nemlig, from global to local||p119|
|Foodzie: one of many US player trying to replicate etsy’s business model in food||p121|
|New concepts: The rise of the shopping list||p122|
|Shopping lists: a new reality, a change for good?||p123|
|Shopping lists: the internet push, how to get on the list||p124|
|Shopping lists: virtual shelf ends, nudging shoppers||p125|
|Learnings & Outlook||p127|
|Learnings: story so far||p128|
|Key learning: sweat the existing asset base and infrastructure to control costs||p129|
|Key learning: it takes time, scale and the space is getting crowded||p130|
|First mover advantage: the benefits||p131|
|First mover advantage: the benefits, Tesco’s gains||p132|
|First mover advantage: the benefits, Ocado and organics, on versus offline share||p133|
|Outlook: trends for the next three years||p134|
|Outlook: online only brands, connected kitchen||p135|
|Outlook: product centric versus customer centric operators||p136|
|Actionable recommendations: what multichannel and pureplayers should do now||p138|
|Actionable recommendations: what retailers and FMCG companies should do now||p139|
|Table 1: GDP sizes: EU 27, 2011 in €bn||p18|
|Table 2: GDP sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn||p19|
|Table 3: Inflation: Euro Area and EU27, 2006-2011 (HICP), %||p25|
|Table 4: Inflation: Euro Area 17, 2006-2011 (HICP), %||p27|
|Table 5: Retail sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn||p31|
|Table 6: Retail sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 growth in %, CAGR||p33|
|Table 7: Per capita retail spend: EU 27, 2011 in €||p35|
|Table 8: Grocery sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €bn||p37|
|Table 9: Grocery sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 growth in %, CAGR||p39|
|Table 10: Grocery share of total retail: EU 27, 2007-2011 in %||p43|
|Table 11: Online grocery sizes sizes: EU 27, 2007-2011 in ‘000 €m e||p48|
|Table 12: Online percentage share of total grocery: EU 27||p49|
|Table 13: Forecast 2010-2015: data EU Total & Online grocery in €bn||p53|
|Chart 1: Unemployment: EU 27, annual average 2011 (%) (1)||p22|
|Chart 2: Unemployment: EU 27, annual average 2011 (%) (2)||p22|
|Chart 3: Interest rates: BOE||p28|
|Chart 4: Interest rates: ECB||p28|
|Chart 5: Grocery growth rates: EU 27 2007-11 in %, (1)||p40|
|Chart 6: Grocery growth rates: EU 27 2007-11 in %, (2)||p40|
|Chart 7: Grocery sizes: The leading countries||p42|
|Chart 8: Grocery per capita sizes: EU 27 in 2011 in € (1)||p46|
|Chart 9: Grocery per capita sizes: EU 27 in 2011 in € (2)||p46|
|Chart 10: LeShop: the data||p64|
|Chart 11: UK – data, Tesco customers, average spend and growth||p72|
|Chart 12: Auchan: figures, hyper vs Chronodrive||p77|
|Chart 13: Click & collect: Data, Q4 2011 France||p81|
|Chart 14: New concepts: making online grocery deliveries efficient||p100|